Comments on Profile Post by MushroomCake28

  1. Finnuval
    Finnuval
    >.< lol
    Dec 11, 2018
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  2. Wavelength
    Wavelength
    Has "Conflict of Interest" written all over it, doesn't it? Then again, I remember there was a lot of sportsbook betting on the 2016 US Election, so I guess Conflict of Interest is nothing new.
    Dec 11, 2018
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  3. Wavelength
    Wavelength
    I could only imagine what the Amicus Curiae briefings would look like from bettors :D
    Dec 11, 2018
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  4. Philosophus Vagus
    Philosophus Vagus
    The uncanny thing is that the spread for political betting is actually always more accurate than early polling at predicting outcomes. 2016 is a great example of that, while almost every poll done said one thing, betting circles around the world favored the opposite for months leading up to the election. Almost as if fricking gamblers are more invested in politics than the layman, if only because they are gambling.
    Dec 12, 2018
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  5. MushroomCake28
    MushroomCake28
    @Wavelength It's not really a conflict of interest. It's more like a fun game of "how do you think this judge is going to rule on this case." They aren't profiting (except from the gamble) politically or in any kind of manner. It's just for fun lol
    Dec 12, 2018
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  6. MushroomCake28
    MushroomCake28
    @Philosophus Vagus I do agree that there are many political polls that are clearly partisan, this one is very much different. First of all it's a law poll, not political one (not to be confused), and parties aren't gaining anything (except money from their bet lol) and aren't putting forward an agenda. It's truly a fun poll there just to have fun lol.
    Dec 12, 2018
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  7. Wavelength
    Wavelength
    @MushroomCake28 Yeah, I don't think it would be a conflict of interest most of the time - more of a fun side bet from people on the sideline. But I do think it's both kind of hilarious, and kind of scary, to think about people theoretically trying to influence the outcome (as happened in sports before it was a huge business on its own) in order to win big bets. :p
    Dec 12, 2018
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  8. MushroomCake28
    MushroomCake28
    @Wavelength Oh I don't think there's any influence in the outcome lol. Not many people participate in it (mostly students and young lawyers I think). Besides, I'm pretty sure the Supreme Court judges aren't even aware lol (due to all being old, I assume technology and social medias aren't their strong suit)
    Dec 12, 2018
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  9. Wavelength
    Wavelength
    @MushroomCake28 @Philosophus Vagus

    The people who set the line are awesome at what they do! They're really smart people with a ton of info. :)

    I think it's worth considering that a pollster's job is not to predict the outcome, but to collect sentiment. People sometimes say they intend to vote, then fail to do so (or even vote for a different candidate). I think that's why a lot of polls get the close races wrong!
    Dec 12, 2018
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  10. Marsigne
    Marsigne
    That's interesting, is it on a site?
    Dec 12, 2018
  11. MushroomCake28
    MushroomCake28
    One of my lawyer friends told. I haven't participate (yet) so I have no idea lol.
    Dec 12, 2018
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