Has "Conflict of Interest" written all over it, doesn't it? Then again, I remember there was a lot of sportsbook betting on the 2016 US Election, so I guess Conflict of Interest is nothing new.
I could only imagine what the Amicus Curiae briefings would look like from bettors
The uncanny thing is that the spread for political betting is actually always more accurate than early polling at predicting outcomes. 2016 is a great example of that, while almost every poll done said one thing, betting circles around the world favored the opposite for months leading up to the election. Almost as if fricking gamblers are more invested in politics than the layman, if only because they are gambling.
@Wavelength It's not really a conflict of interest. It's more like a fun game of "how do you think this judge is going to rule on this case." They aren't profiting (except from the gamble) politically or in any kind of manner. It's just for fun lol
@Philosophus Vagus I do agree that there are many political polls that are clearly partisan, this one is very much different. First of all it's a law poll, not political one (not to be confused), and parties aren't gaining anything (except money from their bet lol) and aren't putting forward an agenda. It's truly a fun poll there just to have fun lol.
@MushroomCake28 Yeah, I don't think it would be a conflict of interest most of the time - more of a fun side bet from people on the sideline. But I do think it's both kind of hilarious, and kind of scary, to think about people theoretically trying to influence the outcome (as happened in sports before it was a huge business on its own) in order to win big bets.
@Wavelength Oh I don't think there's any influence in the outcome lol. Not many people participate in it (mostly students and young lawyers I think). Besides, I'm pretty sure the Supreme Court judges aren't even aware lol (due to all being old, I assume technology and social medias aren't their strong suit)
@MushroomCake28 @Philosophus Vagus
The people who set the line are awesome at what they do! They're really smart people with a ton of info.
I think it's worth considering that a pollster's job is not to predict the outcome, but to collect sentiment. People sometimes say they intend to vote, then fail to do so (or even vote for a different candidate). I think that's why a lot of polls get the close races wrong!
That's interesting, is it on a site?
One of my lawyer friends told. I haven't participate (yet) so I have no idea lol.
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