even renowned economists predict that. And all I can do is laugh.
Note: Not on you like you, but you like the people I've told it.
Well we aren't yet in a recession, but it doesn't take a genius to see that it's slowly coming. Many markets are slowing down, especially manufacturing, and there are so many political tension right now (US, China, Brexit, etc.).
Also there are tons of economics data pointing toward a recession (inverted yield curve, < 50 PMI, feds lowering interest rates, slow GPD growth especially in European countries, China housing market bubble, etc.)
Economy is a cycle, and everything that goes up will go down, and everything that goes down will go up. We've been going up for more than 10 years, credit and debt has been building up (especially with the super low interest rate), so a down turn is not surprising.
I'm actually prepared for it lol, I've sold most of my stocks (I racked a good 27% return on invest during the last 3 months), waiting for the market to crash. Then I'm going to buy everything at 50% off.
Yeah, I knew a recession was going to come when I saw the indexes in the world turn around. Funnily enough, few days after my warning the US indexes hit record maximum... But I've already learned to trust my judgement until I'm really proven wrong.
The US stocks are just up because of the hope of US/China deal. People are too greedy since we've been in a bull market for more than 10 years. I can't wait for it to crash lol.
Nevertheless, I think that the expansion is still going to continue for a couple of months. But things could change quickly, especially with the current political tensions. (no deal Brexit could trigger a recession for example).
Yeah. The great crisis is coming.
Yeah... Time to build financial reserves. Except our country has none.
as long as countries and people continue worrying about their position on the global economy and neglecting the local economy, there's not going to be any economy to speak of in the near future.
people laughed at us kids playing RTSs back in the day... I learned more from managing a stone age settlement than from a semester of economics.
US Stocks are up because there is nowhere else to invest and Main Street USA is growing like crazy thanks to tariffs. IF there is a US/China trade deal and USMCA w/Canada and Mexico goes through you'll see the stock market blow up like crazy, but until then US is only place to invest.
US Stocks will fall, that is inevitable. The only question is when. The PE ratio of the SP 500 companies is WAY too high, meaning companies are overpriced.
Then the global market needs to invent another way for 6 billion people to invest their money and get a decent return. For the last 30 years the only answer has been Wall Street. Within the last 3, we had interest rates rising, but now the trade war is forcing them down again. Still no alternatives.
@Golden Unicorn Gaming It will always go up in the long term. All I'm saying is that it has been going up too fast, and the market will correct itself. Nevertheless, in 20 years, the SP 500 will be higher than it is today.
Just to give you an idea, the SP 500 grew to about 400% of its value in 10 years. The average annual return of the us stock market for 100 years is about 7-8% annually. So if you take 7.5% of growth for 10 years, you should have 206.1% of growth. Now compare that to 400% and you'll get what I mean.
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