Confirmation bias with the card games

[Clord]

Adding "the" to thread title just because I can even though I could omit it.


Anyway, to the subject at hand.


One thing I have seen a lot in card games and many other "random chance" based games is that some people believe every game is rigged against them when it comes to dealing cards or other random effects in digital versions of the games. Be it Hearthstone, MTG or even Poker Night 2.


I personally have not experienced such thing that much, I don't generally tend to make up excuses when I lose, I know that the games generally don't favor the AI or other player in terms of draw logic and stuff like that unless game states it somewhere or the developers say so.


Perception easily deceives people.

 

[Warpmind]

In my experience, all randomization mechanics, be they in games with cards, dice or electronic RNGs are violently biased against ALL human players. The only question is which player gets screwed over first and fastest.

 

[Clord]

With these three easy steps, even you can be a star of attention.


1. Doesn't respect the mana/land/other curve and stuffs tons of high mana/land/other cards.


2. Complains after streak of losses when the system is supposed to give you chance to win.


3. Goes to make angry post on whatever is the most popular forum for the particular card game.

 

[Wavelength]

My personal problem with Hearthstone is not that the RNG is biased against me, but that the RNG factors into deciding the winner way too much in a well-played game by both sides.  Some rounds of HS (particularly with a zoo deck on one or both sides) feel more like an extremely well-dressed game of Bingo.

On the flip side is my personal favorite card game (Spectromancer), where you have to make a lot of strategic choice or educated guess with almost every card you play until the endgame.  There are very few times I curse the RNG or shout in frustration about how I couldn't win a game here - the feeling is almost always that I made a mistake or my opponent outplayed me.

Speaking of bad luck, in the pen & paper RPG I'm currently playing, I've rolled so many 1s (as opposed to my comrades who have barely rolled any) that "Wave Rolls a 1" has become a running joke.  To make things worse, I'm using Random.org to generate my rolls, so I can't blame loaded dice!  It's always possible to have streaks like this, of course, even in a fair system - but it's funny when such outliers rear their ugly heads.

 

[Warpmind]

Speaking of bad luck, in the pen & paper RPG I'm currently playing, I've rolled so many 1s (as opposed to my comrades who have barely rolled any) that "Wave Rolls a 1" has become a running joke.  To make things worse, I'm using Random.org to generate my rolls, so I can't blame loaded dice!  It's always possible to have streaks like this, of course, even in a fair system - but it's funny when such outliers rear their ugly heads.

Sounds all too familiar. I used to play a Warforged Monk in Eberron. Whenever I tried to hit something, I'd roll 8. Up to the point where Monk had leveled so far up, an 8 on the die was enough to hit - at which point I started rolling 3 instead.

 

[kerbonklin]

When I play Hearthstone:

Sneeds Old Shredder --> Prophet Velen / Kel'thazud



He got this minion 3 times in a row out of a pool of 62 possible cards.

Piloted Sky Golem --> Summoning Portal

Piloted Shredder --> Captains parrot / Millhouse Manastorm / Lorewalker Cho

RNG at its finest.

 

[Touchfuzzy]

Here is the thing: all randomness is not made equal. There is a lot of mitigation possible even in a card game, but not all games do it properly.

Top tournament players in Magic will stomp a beginner almost every time.

On the other hand, top tournament players of Hearhstone have been shown to still only have like a 65% win rate.

Hearthstone has some skill/card collecting involved in winning, but it isn't the deciding factor in a lot of games.

 

[Clord]

Well, Hearthstone utilizes MMR system that tries to make win rate for most to be around 50%. Unlike with Magic the Gethering, Blizzard offers people a deal who are top whatever according to their system. When it comes to Magic the Gathering, to prove your skill you need to fight in a real life and pro players are those who are "known" to be pro.


Essentially many good players just happened to end up on Blizzard's radar and then they got called "pro players."


Plus compared to Magic the Gathering, in many ways Hearthstone is way simpler in many ways which means easier time to build competitive deck and do decisions during the match. Also reason why someone is not considered pro in Magic the Gathering might simply be because they can't afford the cards. Magic the Gathering in competitive level is extremely expensive hobby. Some Hearthstone pro players have just grinded gold for the most part to get their cards.