COVID-19 a.k.a. coronavirus, let's talk about it.

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Parallax Panda

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Things seems to be going south for Sweden, fast!

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Sweden

Keeping in mind that Sweden is a very small country that has been scaling down on it's military (so not much help to expect from them) and general healthcare for years now. These numbers does not look very good.

Number of new cases per day in Sweden:

Number of deaths per day in Sweden:

Especially the number of deaths looks very scary. Sweden "only" have 42 deaths so far but if we look at this diagram, 13(!) of those were yesterday, 6 were the day before. Man, if that is anything but an abnormal spike it would mean that within a week or even a few days, Sweden could have 100+ deaths (and who knows where it'll end).

Also, keep Sweden's relatively small population in mind as well and these numbers will seem a lot more severe than if you compared them to other countries that have many millions people more living in them.

I'd say it looks like Sweden could be following in the footsteps of Spain and Italy. I actually think it's very likely that will happen.

Apparently Japan might also think the situation in Sweden is dire, because... While I can't confirm this yet (and thus it'd have to be considered a rumor for now), I know someone who works with customs and freight ships and according to him Japan decided to close it's borders to Sweden 18:00, today. Have not found any public sources on this yet though. I guess we'll see tomorrow.

More cases are being reported in Tokyo and Fukuoka (where I live) on the TV every day as well. Now that Japan has officially postponed the Olympics (finally), maybe they'll start do testing again. And maybe they'll put down some restrictions too. Because right now, there's absolutely NO restrictions AT ALL in Japan. Which is a bit worrying.
 
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bgillisp

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India's on total lockdown now too. Apparently it is not going well though my info is like 3rd hand, though I have a friend there but haven't been able to get ahold of her yet.
 

Emanzi

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It has also hit Sub-Saharan Africa now, we have 14 confirmed cases in Uganda and 0 deaths. The president has suspended all incoming and outgoing flights as of 23rd March 2020 the airport has shutdown completely.
 
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Ryisunique

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Corporate ordered us to take out half our seating. Now there's only 10 spaces to eat and sit at. It's gonna hit a lot of people when larger groups try to take their lunches at the same time. It's still too cold to sit outside, and I don't have a car to conveniently sit in at lunch. Also, all the benches have disappeared in the store. They're also making announcements about keeping distance between people. It's getting a bit surreal.
 

pasunna

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Now there are confirmed case about teenager die in America and UK
so... even if you are young and healthy
please don't underestimate it like before at all
 

rue669

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Over here in Toronto we are slowly going towards lockdown. As a country, our government is taking this very seriously but as a people? Not so much. Maybe not as bad as other countries, but our prime minister is starting to lose it on us. I don’t think he wants to use more draconian means, but I totally think he should. I’ve been very impressed with Toronto and Quebec government’s responses and temperament. Thankfully I work for the government which means I’m working from home.

I’m looking forward to going to some kind of semblance of normalcy. It’ll take awhile. I hope not 12-18 months like they say but who knows. it also seems like there will be at least two waves of this virus if not three. interesting to see way happens with China as the relax their lockdown. But I have no idea how a country can survive on a lockdown for 12-18 months. We’d all be done for if that were the case.
 

Punamaagi

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Compared to many other countries, the situation in Finland has been progressing slowly, but we're still moving towards a worrying direction. Five deaths, 880 cases and 22 people in intensive care. The government has also announced a lockdown on the capital region, and restaurants, bars, cafés etc. are already closed more or less everywhere.

It feels a bit strange to think how little my life has changed. Due to being self-employed and working from home, work has remained the same as before. I don't live in the capital region so the lockdown doesn't affect me (though I hope my sister who lives there will be okay), and I tend to spend most of the my time indoors anyway. One event I was going to attend in May will probably get cancelled, but... that's about it.

I'm mostly worried about the small businesses who will struggle to stay afloat through this and the friends who work in healthcare or other "critical fields". One of them has mentioned that she gets every day multiple emails detailing new procedures or the current situation regarding COVID-19, and I can only imagine how stressful that is.
I was thinking of asking if she wants to meet and have a chat / cup of tea once I get out of quarantine, but I'm not sure if that's wise, given that social interactions should be limited IRL. Maybe we could go for a walk and stay two metres away from each other while we talk. :LZSskeptic:
 

JojoLaVache

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I live in France, one of the countries hit the most by the virus, and well, I'm still staying at home. Since I finished my studies at university, I spent little time outdoors.

If anything, the outbreak gave me more reason to find work from home. I can't make money from video-making (my main activity before I came back to RPG Making), so I'm working on creating commercially viable products.

But yeah, other than the lack of cars driving in the streets, life is still somewhat normal, I guess.
 

Matseb2611

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@Parallax Panda : I wouldn't worry too much. The trend is on the up for most western countries right now, because we've been hit much later than China and other countries next to it. But that exponential increase is not going to go forever. It will level off. Social distancing and other measures will help to level it off at a lower peak of course. But it is going to go up for some time regardless of what we do and it will happen that way everywhere. Our goal right now is to smooth the curve a bit so that health services can cope with the patient load (which also means higher %ge of successful recovery for patients).

As far as mortality rate, it's still among the better of the countries. 42 deaths might seem a lot, but it's a lot lower than for many other western countries, and in the grand perspective this is actually very little compared to how many people die from seasonal flu every year for example.
 

Parallax Panda

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@Matseb2611
Well there's 71(!) deaths in Sweden now, 2824 infected (yesterdays numbers). I barely passed the high school math but I think that rounds down to something like 2.5 %?
If so, I'd say that's quite high and not really low compared to other European counties.

Sweden has gone from ~10 to 71 deaths in a week (with the number of deaths per day increasing daily).

But anyway, I get what you mean. I know this will continue to spike for a while and then eventually we'll reach a peak where it'll start to die down. However, I don't think we're close to that peak right now. And the numbers in Japan (I actually live there and not in Sweden) seems to just recently started to escalate, even though we got the virus very early on.

Latest news out of Japan in regards to this is that the information I got ahead of time that there's now a list of countries (which includes my Sweden), where if you've been there for the last 14 days, they'll no longer let you into the country. Japan has not put much restrictions in place yet so while this is something other countries did weeks ago, it's new measurements here.

Also this:

"On 25 March, MHLW officials announced 71 person tested positive[45], including 41 cases in Tokyo, daily.[46] Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike held an emergency press conference in the late afternoon of the day. She said that "the current situation is a serious situation where the number of infected people may explode." Koike also asked "if possible, work at home and refrain from going out at night as much as possible on weekdays." Koike asked people returning from abroad to refrain from going out for 14 days.[47] The request from the governor appears to have punctured the relaxed mood in Tokyo. “Panic buying” began to trend on Twitter, with users posting pictures of empty shelves and lines outside supermarkets. At the Don Qujiote store in Nakameguro on Wednesday, customers flocked to grab instant noodles and canned goods in the minutes immediately following Koike’s late-evening speech. " - Source <---

It was bad enough when the toilet paper was gone (it's back now), but when people go out and buy all the food. That's much worse. Luckily for me, this has just happened in Tokyo and I have enough essentials at home to not have to go rely on going to the super market everyday anyway. But I'm sure some people might have it tough...
 

bgillisp

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I did the math with the CDC numbers, around March 9th the US was increasing by 44% per day, using March 24th and 25th numbers though we increased by 25% instead. Slowing down some.

However, I also did the math for my state using current state counts. If nothing changes we'll cross 50,000 infected in my state alone on April 23rd. Yikes.
 
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I've seen some people claim that mortality rate will naturally go down as tests are conducted on people but that is false; the proportional mortality rate can go either direction as tests are conducted in a country. Coroners after all have to test dead bodies for cause of death, and COVID-19 does not wait for a testing kit.

It's also important to note that mortality rates in a region can spike when hospitals become overwhelmed with patients. The United States is very soon going into the cluster**** phase of widespread bed and supply shortage (it's already starting to happen at some hospitals). People who might otherwise have survived under normal hospital care can die because of a lack of supplies and medical staff.


The observed global average mortality rate so far is now around 4% as of the latest figures. There are countries as low as around 1% and countries as high as around 10% - as more and more tests are being conducted, the observed trend shows relative consistency within a certain range of mortality. Not all countries have enough reliable healthcare facilities to take care of hospitalized patients, and there are different stages of response that can affect how the infected are handled, so one should not expect uniformity across the board.

Recovery from COVID-19 is also not perfect in all cases. A number of people have had their lungs damaged, potentially requiring rehabilitation through careful exercise to restore lung capacity. This could affect some people's ability to find work after the pandemic situation stabilizes globally.

COVID-19 is not the Black Death or the 1918 flu strain, but it's also significantly more dangerous than the seasonal flu. A lot of people have been using extreme comparisons to downplay the seriousness of the virus - it's not the end of the world but it's also not business as usual.

It's high enough risk to warrant moving resources and halting normal activities to contain it, no more, no less.
 

Matseb2611

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@Parallax Panda : Yeah, totally agreed. Human panic buying makes the whole situation a lot worse, because most times people buy more than they need, so others don't get anything, and those could be the most vulnerable in the society or the healthcare staff who have to work round the clock and barely get the time to go to the shops. (Gladly our supermarkets here are now allocating a few hours every week where those people can shop as top priority so that they get necessary food and supplies too).

Regarding the increases, it's all comparative. Here in UK, we have about 600 deaths now. But we reached that number significantly slower than say Italy did. When you extrapolate that data into the future, it's very significant and means the peak levels off much sooner. So, it all depends on how fast Sweden's numbers go up compared to other countries and you can then make an estimated projection of where the numbers will level off. For now it doesn't seem too bad when comparing to most other countries.

@Storyteller-Hero : Yeah, the dead could also be identified with COVID-19, but the deaths are a lot more in the light than the thousands of people with barely any symptoms. It's a lot harder for a death to go by unnoticed. So I suspect the mortality rate will still be much lower if more people get tested. Here in UK for example, the mortality rate seems to be about 5% according to official figures, but our services have been very bad at testing people. They've been turning down most people and only focusing on those who show serious symptoms, so this data is already skewed because we're not seeing all the numbers of milder cases.

I agree that we shouldn't make extreme comparison, both for downplaying or overplaying the situation. But it doesn't hurt to show things in perspective when actual numbers are concerned. Yeah, it's a bit more lethal than seasonal flu, but in terms of actual numbers, the flu still kills on average around 400,000 people around the world per year. So the current deaths we have from COVID-19 aren't catastrophic. We should of course do all we can to curb the outbreak and reduce the spread, because any deaths that can be prevented should be prevented. But this is no cause for panic and doomsday preparations. The world will pull through the illness. However, it will take significantly longer to recover from the economic damage and we shouldn't ignore that.
 

bgillisp

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There is one major difference though between this and the flu which is often overlooked. On average, 15% of those who get this need hospitalization. The flu is nowhere NEAR that. Current projections are that if that holds and even 50% of the US gets it, the hospitals will be overloaded as those who need hospitalization need the ICU usually, not just any empty bed.
 
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@Storyteller-Hero : Yeah, the dead could also be identified with COVID-19, but the deaths are a lot more in the light than the thousands of people with barely any symptoms. It's a lot harder for a death to go by unnoticed. So I suspect the mortality rate will still be much lower if more people get tested. Here in UK for example, the mortality rate seems to be about 5% according to official figures, but our services have been very bad at testing people. They've been turning down most people and only focusing on those who show serious symptoms, so this data is already skewed because we're not seeing all the numbers of milder cases.

I agree that we shouldn't make extreme comparison, both for downplaying or overplaying the situation. But it doesn't hurt to show things in perspective when actual numbers are concerned. Yeah, it's a bit more lethal than seasonal flu, but in terms of actual numbers, the flu still kills on average around 400,000 people around the world per year. So the current deaths we have from COVID-19 aren't catastrophic. We should of course do all we can to curb the outbreak and reduce the spread, because any deaths that can be prevented should be prevented. But this is no cause for panic and doomsday preparations. The world will pull through the illness. However, it will take significantly longer to recover from the economic damage and we shouldn't ignore that.
I wouldn't underestimate how many people die without immediate notice, especially when supplies are limited and living people take priority over corpses. For example, in Spain the military discovered a number of abandoned bodies while disinfecting homes.

Let's also not forget how many deaths get indirectly caused by COVID-19 as hospitals are overwhelmed by incoming patients suffering from the nastier levels of symptoms. People still get wounded and sick from other causes, needing the very beds and supplies being used on emergency COVID-19 patients.

It's important to note that the reason why we quarantine COVID-19 is so that it does not have the same freedom as seasonal flu. The observed mortality rate from COVID-19 is 10-100 times that of seasonal flu (seasonal flu's average mortality rate is around 0.1% of infected), and unlike seasonal flu we don't have a vaccine for COVID-19 and drug treatments for it are still in experimental stage. The economic damage is high, but the people we love are priceless and almost nobody wants to sacrifice their own loved ones for a good economy.
 
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HumanNinjaToo

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I would like to know more about countries on the World and how is the situation out there.
I would like to share thoughts, feelings, ideas.
Let's support each other any way we can.
To get back on topic; my thoughts, feelings, and ideas related to the COVID-19 pandemic in relation to the US:

The major hotspots affected are New York, California, Florida, and Washington. It's tragic that so many city and state elected officials ignored the warning signs back in January and February. In New York City, the mayor and other elected officials actually encouraged people to go to the movies, to go to parade, and to carry on normally as if nothing was happening. Now New York holds over half of the US reported COVID-19 cases. It's sickening that career politicians in my country place their public image and personal agenda above the needs of the people.

My thought is that we, as a country, need to evaluate the way this pandemic has affected our society. I feel like there are many other important factors to consider when it comes to nation-wide crises. For instance, over 40,000 people in the US commit suicide every year. That's over 120 deaths per day due to self-harm. That is a crisis! However, it seems to be a crisis we all have grown accustomed to. My idea is that we use this COVID-19 pandemic as a jumping off point to notice the other major issues our societies face. What will we do moving forward, after COVID-19?
 
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bgillisp

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Might want to check that math. 4000 / 365 is not 120.

On another note, I ran the math for cases yesterday, it seems US has a little slowdown going on, as we were increasing by 44% per day to 25% per day. Still not great but its slowing...a little.

Still times like this are when I'm glad I live in a state with more cows than people.
 

HumanNinjaToo

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Might want to check that math. 4000 / 365 is not 120.

On another note, I ran the math for cases yesterday, it seems US has a little slowdown going on, as we were increasing by 44% per day to 25% per day. Still not great but its slowing...a little.

Still times like this are when I'm glad I live in a state with more cows than people.
Thanks, I corrected it. I left out a '0'. The number is over 40K per year, not 4K.


I'm glad to see the slow down of reported cases, however, I'm not sure how accurate the reporting is to be honest. In my state of Oklahoma, my hometown was one of four locations to get a mobile testing unit in the area for one day. I think our paper reported that less than 100 people showed up for testing. While I'm glad to see no reported cases in my area, I'm curious as to why.

Our local hospital only tests people who are at the point of possible hospitalization. How many people get turned away from testing who may actually have the virus, only to show more drastic symptoms a week later? How many people could they have infected since then?
 

bgillisp

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I wondered...and yes you got a mod here who teaches math for a living so I'll notice numbers that seem a little off.

My work is officially now online until May 15th, they sent us the message today extending it from April 10th to May 15th. Guess I better get comfortable.
 
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