This is going to be really long, I hope you guys like to discuss about this stuff with me.
I really liked this game the first time I played it, but after the second playthrough and watching a Let's play, I am really disappointed about the meaninglessless of most of the choices. Part of that is surely because every choice that is connected to the Psychopath does not matter at all (except the "Who is going to die?" stuff with Chris and Ash). Knowing that Josh is the Psycho
makes half of the choices ingame meaningless in the second playthrough because you already know that he does not want to hurt anyone.
But let's have a look at it:
Any of Your Business:
Chris may lose trust in Sam. No deal it all since nearly all of those stats only affect really small aspects of the game. But this was the first effect to show how everything works, so this is fine.
Rats With Bushy Tails: Who would shoot the squirrel anyway? :/ However, not shooting it will allow Sam to escape the psychopath. But it does not matter at all if she gets captures, because nothing can happen to her, since Josh will not hurt her.
The Soul of Discretion: Matt may know about Emily and Mike flirting. This affects the relationshop of Matt and Mike. However, they do not meet again for most of the game and it does not matter at all for future events.
Whose Side Are You on: It affects how Matt and Emily interact. While interesting, it has no actual influence on the outcome of a single event.
Be Her Hero: See, this could have been really cool. There are 3 possible outcomes in the cabin with Mike and Jessica: She doesn't really want to have sex with you and has still her mantle on when she is captured, she is not really sure and will wear shorts and a shirt and she wants to bang all night long and is in her underwear. Which event you trigger depends on different decisions during your way up to the cabin and your relationship with Jessica and the end of the way. However, again it does not have a real impact because only for fan service it does not matter which clothes she wears. But image if hypothermia would be a real issue and by actually getting her naked she would simply freeze to death in the mines at the end. See, this decision line could have been really, really important. But at the end, it does not matter again.
Something For Later: Important for Sams Escape. But this doesn't matter again, since she is never in real danger and there are other ways to escape.
To The Rescue:T his one is really important and affects if Jessica lives or dies.
... And Which one Will die: It does not matter if you choose Ash or Josh, Ash will always be saved and any other influence this decision has is meaningless. Later however, Chris has to choose if he shots Ash or himself. If he shots himself without pointing the gun to Ashley she will fall madly in love with him and open the door of the lodge for him later, saving him from Handigo. If he shots her, she will coldly watch his death. So while the first part is really meaningless, the second part is really good!
At What Price: You don't even have to trigger this event at all, but to be fair, most of us triggered it the first time. So, you can chose to amputate your fingers (WHICH HAS NO INFLUENCE ON THE GAME AT ALL) or to keep your machete. While the machete proves usefull later, it does not matter if Mike has it, because he can not die at the moment where he needs it the second time. Again, this whole decision is pointless.
Man's Best Friend: It's much cooler of course if your befriend the wolf and the whole second sanatorium scene will be different with the wolf following you will be different than without him. So from my point of view, this is a good use of a butterfly effect.
On The Same Page: This is one of the most important decisions in the whole game and you don't even know why unless you try out a lot. If you decide to agree to the tower AND give Matt the Flare gun later in the game, he will fire it immediatly. After dropping into the mines with the tower, you are now no longer able to try to save Emily and therefore she will hate you in the future. If you decide to help her twice without having the flare gun, Matt will die. If Matt says he does not want to go to the tower they will wind up later there anyway. The difference is that if Emily now gives Matt the gun, he will not just, so he has it, when he is attacked in the mines, after the tried to save Emily twice. But if Emily doesn't have the gun, she will get bitten by a Wendigo, which will cause Mike to aim the gun at her and then she will hate Mike (or he will kill her). See, this is a really complex scenario with a lot of different outcomes. This is a good butterfly effect that would have been even better if the future relationship of Matt, Mike and Emily would have a game related influence.
Run Or Hide: Psychopath Event -> Meaningless
In Self Defense: No idea why anybody would kill the deers, but at this point you can kill Matt, so this is an important butterfly effect that directly affects gameplay.
Who Gets The Gun and "Save Yourself" and "Forewarned is Forearmed": See "On The Same Page" -> Good One
Stick Together: This is not only no choice but it also does not matter what happens, Flamethrowerguy dies either way. -> Meaningless.
Point Blank:: Kill Emily or let her live -> Good one.
Once Bitten: Has absolutely on influence on anything -> meaningless.
Left Behind: Good choices, directly affects if Matt or Jessica or both die -> Fine.
Important Discovery: Important for Josh's true ending. Would be better if you requiered more than one clue, but well. Guess it is ok. Also there is the whole chase scene in the sanatorium with Mike and the Wendigos. There are a lot of decisions and quick time events but nearly all of them have no impact. For example: There are a lot of situation where Wendigos jump scare Mike by attacking him from cells or while they are on a leash. He still have the choice to shot them, but it has no impact if he actually does it. Same goes for choing direction: If you take the right door instead of the left one, you will simply shoot a wendigo and turn around, taking the left one. You know what would have been really cool here? A limited number of bullets. Because near the end of the scene Mike has to shoot open a door to escape and also at least two barrels. But what would happen if your decision was to waste bullets on the three or four wendigo attacks a few minutes were you didn't have to? Right, the door would not open. You could not destroy the barrels. EVERYTHING WOULD BE DIFFERENT. Oh, and Mike would die of course. But Mike can not die at this point of the game at all. So even if you fail everything, the worst that could happen is that the poor wolf dies. We do not want this of course, but having Mike AND the wolf in danger would add a lot more drama. There could have been so much more important choices, but they did not implement it, which makes me quite sad, since the story is basically always the same.
There are already ways and expertise wo make this better. As an example please have a look at the Zero Escape Series on the Nintendo (3)DS. While both of the games may not be the kind of games you like (they are drawn in manga/anime style and a lot people don't like that) let me tell you about decision making in the second one (Virtue's last Reward) (small spoilers, only gameplay related, not story related): The decision you make are basically the same most of the time. You are kept hostage in a big facility together with some other people. Your goal is to escape of course. For that you need to solve different riddles and make your war from room to room (think something like SAW, just a lot less brutal in most cases and without that much gore). After some time your kidnapper contacts you and tells everyone that at certain points in time you have to play a game or a vessel that was places on the arm of all people will kill them with poison. Each of those vessels also has a counter on it, showing the number 5. The people get seperated in small groups of one or two people. Now each of this groups is told that they will have to play again of the other groups. All of those groups will enter a different small room. In that room they will have a computer terminal that lets the group chose between two options "Ally" or "Betrayel". If both groups that are paired agains each other chose "Alley", all members of this groups will get 2 points added to their counter. If one group choses "Betray" and the other choses "Ally", all people in the group that chose "betray" will get 3 points and everyone that chose "Ally" will LOSE 3 points. If both groups chose "Betrayel", nothing will happen. The first person to reach 10 points is free to leave. If there are multiple people that reach 10 points for the first time at the same time, all these people are free to go. Everyone else is going to die. Also, if your counter reaches 0, you are also going to die. There are multiple rounds of this game throughout the game and it will continue as long as nobody reached 10 points. As you can see, it would only be necessary to play 3 rounds with everyone chosing "Ally" and everyone would be able to leave. But as you can image, this is not as easy as it seems. Why? Because the relationship of the characters actually matters. The only real choices you make all the time (besides solving puzzles) is only if you chose "Betray" or "Ally". But these choices are so meaningful and often unpredictable that you really care for them, even on the fifth or sixth playthrough. And you need that many playthrough because there a different timelines involved and you need clues you find in timeline A to make progress in timeline B and so on. Every character can die at all times, every choice is important and this is much better solved than in Until Dawn. I am not saying those two games perfect, but perhaps Supermassive Games should have a look at them to see, what "meaningful choices" actually means.