How large is the commercial fan base for this RPG niche?

[Zozo]

Hello all! 

 

After tinkering with RPG Maker a bit and discovering it isn't at all the toy I thought it was, I've been considering it as a commercial tool. I've found answers to most of my questions by lurking on this helpful forum. But here's one I can't get a handle on and I hope some of you can answer: How large is the commercial fan base for this RPG niche in 2013?

 

I'm using "fan" in it's original definition - "fanatic" - as in people who love, love, love! the type of RPG that RPG Maker was designed to create, and are happy to seek out and pay for good ones.

 

I realize pegging a number like this is difficult. A more specific version of the question might be:

 

Assuming an RPG Maker game with content, quality and price that the audience considers to be of good value, and assuming the game is sold/reviewed/mentioned only on RPG-oriented portals/sites (no Steam or Big Fish), what's the *minimum* number of units you'd expect to sell?

 

And if that still isn't specific enough: Assuming the above, would you expect to sell over 5,000 units?

 

Thanks for the help!

 

[Andar]

Similiar questions have been asked before, and usually it was stated that the contracts with the distributor/portal forbid the developer to disclose sale number unless those numbers got very high.

That said - there are several companies around that sell multiple RM-games, so the program can be used successfully for commercial games..

However, you should expect a low number at the beginning, because most probably you have to build up a reputation for creating "good games" before people are willing to purchase your games in higher numbers. That is simply because RPGM can be used to make games cheap (use only RTP etc), and a lot of hobby-developers using it to create free games (with varying quality).

I would suggest to make your first completed project a free game to build up that reputation and to learn the engine during developing that game - and only start going commercial with your second project.

 

[Zozo]

Thanks for answering, Andar. I did read in this forum's rules that contractual info should not be disclosed, so I apologize if that seemed to be my intent. I tried to word the questions in a way that they could be answered generally without revealing such information. Maybe it isn't possible to do that.

For example, taking my experience with selling iPhone solitaire apps, my answer to selling >5000 units in 2009 would have been "almost certainly", while selling >5000 units in 2013 my answer is "extremely unlikely" for a new app. My guess for the minimum number of units one would sell in 2013 is zero, and in 2009 I would have guessed 10,000. These are educated guesses based on experience, but the figures are general and don't disclose my actual sales numbers (which are very different from these figures). I'm more trying to give a feel for the audience size at those times.

I'm hoping some people here with experience in this RPG niche can give similar general figures. Right now, I'm so ignorant of the niche's audience that I don't know if there are 100 players out there or 100,000.

 

[Shaz]

I couldn't really answer. There is the POTENTIAL to sell a few thousand copies of your game, but it doesn't depend just on the number of fans. It also depends on how well known you are, whether you've released any games before, whether you provide a demo, where you release your game, and what the game itself is like.


So that's five additional factors to take into account, and the only one you actually asked about is the only one over which you have no control. Concentrate on the others instead, to improve your chances.

 

[Engr. Adiktuzmiko]

IMO,

If ur asking for current audience for your games, I'd say zero

If ur asking for potential audience for your games, then almost all people here is a potential audience (if not all)... then if you take into account the players out there that isn't part of this community, then it could well be 5-6 digits... and it will all depend on the points that Shaz said above...

 

[Indinera]

For example, taking my experience with selling iPhone solitaire apps, my answer to selling >5000 units in 2009 would have been "almost certainly", while selling >5000 units in 2013 my answer is "extremely unlikely" for a new app. My guess for the minimum number of units one would sell in 2013 is zero, and in 2009 I would have guessed 10,000. These are educated guesses based on experience, but the figures are general and don't disclose my actual sales numbers (which are very different from these figures). I'm more trying to give a feel for the audience size at those times.

Sales went down a bit from 2009 to 2013. If you are a professional, you should be speaking of income rather than sales, cuz RM games can be sold at any price from $1 to $30 lol 1,000 copies at $1 makes less money than 100 at $30

I'm hoping some people here with experience in this RPG niche can give similar general figures. Right now, I'm so ignorant of the niche's audience that I don't know if there are 100 players out there or 100,000.

See above. But even that, I don't usually disclose sales figures. The best thing you can do is make a good game in 6 months and see for yourself.

 

[GrandmaDeb]

Of course, Zozo, the big bonus to making an RPG via RPG Maker is that you get to make great friends and have fun WHILE you are pursuing the commercial goals. =]


Best wishes.

 

[Zozo]

Thanks for all the answers, I really appreciate the info. It's encouraging that this game niche has potentially a few thousand fans and that this software engine has a fun, friendly community.

 

Maybe I should explain the context for my questions. It could spark some discussion relevant to RPG Maker as a commercial tool.

 

I've been a full-time indie game developer for 10 years. (I had to count it up. It's hard to believe it's been that long.) My first love is the RPG, typically western but either style will do, starting with Temple of Apshai, which likely shows my age. Alas, I don't make RPGs as an indie.

 

However.

 

For several reasons, I'm at a point where I need to work in a new genre. The RPG genre is, of course, my preferred choice, which is why I'm researching the market. Whatever I choose, I'll be betting over a year of time and some non-trivial funding. I need to sense the risk involved. RPGs being notoriously difficult to create already increases that risk but eliminating engine development by using a tool like RPG Maker offsets that. This is what makes RPG Maker attractive.

 

As Shaz pointed out, the size of the genre's audience is a factor we don't control. My strategy has always been making games for small, underserved niches. But I have to know the niche is at least of sufficient size to have a shot at financial success. It's quite possible that I can't create a commercial-quality RPG, which is risky enough. But releasing even a well-received game into a niche that's too small can be financially devastating to an indie company. I don't know if any of you have ever done that. I have and it wasn't an easy recovery. 

 

I've found that if a genre doesn't have at least 5,000 commercial fans the *marketing* can prove too difficult for my projects to be profitable. I don't necessarily need those fans to buy my games, I need them to exist within the niche. That's why I'm wondering what the minimum units-sold expectation is for hypothetical, commercial-quality games in this space, outside of mega-portals like Steam.

 

So researching is how I came across this forum a couple of months ago and why I've been lurking a bit. Honestly, I was surprised by how many games sell in this RPG niche. I thought there wasn't a commercial market for these at all any more. (I remember when Amanda was pioneering Aveyond into the great unknown with "RPG Maker", whatever that was. I thought she was 1. Brave and 2. Nuts. Everyone knew the 2D, low-res, turn-based, anime-style RPG market was dead outside of Nintendo handhelds. Of course, she proved that wrong, and I haven't really followed Amaranth's success since. Thus my ignorance.)

 

I hope that wasn't too business/clinical for this forum. It certainly isn't the fun part of making games!

 

[Indinera]

But I have to know the niche is at least of sufficient size to have a shot at financial success.

It's possible, but I think it requires some skills outside of the game making per se, ie the ability to carry off your projects, set appropriate goals, work fast and overall know what you're doing. Follow my advice, take 6 months to make a solid 20-hour game, and see where you go from that. I've been full-time indie for 5 years, as it happens.

It's quite possible that I can't create a commercial-quality RPG, which is risky enough. But releasing even a well-received game into a niche that's too small can be financially devastating to an indie company. I don't know if any of you have ever done that. I have and it wasn't an easy recovery. 

Nope I made only very profitable games so far lol (no jinx please aha)

But if you've got a marketing plan that works so far, don't put all your eggs in the same bag, keep it and venture into RMing carefully. What's your company, may I ask?

 

I've found that if a genre doesn't have at least 5,000 commercial fans the *marketing* can prove too difficult for my projects to be profitable. I don't necessarily need those fans to buy my games, I need them to exist within the niche.

 

As I said, it all depends what price you give to your game. You should know from your experience as an indie dev that it's much easier to sell 5,000 copies at $1 than $10.

 

That's why I'm wondering what the minimum units-sold expectation is for hypothetical, commercial-quality games in this space, outside of mega-portals like Steam.

 

It relies heavily on the marketing you'll do. No pre-made, carved in stone answer to that, I'm afraid.

 

So researching is how I came across this forum a couple of months ago and why I've been lurking a bit. Honestly, I was surprised by how many games sell in this RPG niche. I thought there wasn't a commercial market for these at all any more. (I remember when Amanda was pioneering Aveyond into the great unknown with "RPG Maker", whatever that was. I thought she was 1. Brave and 2. Nuts. Everyone knew the 2D, low-res, turn-based, anime-style RPG market was dead outside of Nintendo handhelds. Of course, she proved that wrong, and I haven't really followed Amaranth's success since. Thus my ignorance.)

 

Yes she had a brilliant and inspirational idea. She inspired me after I had inspired her in making a freeware game, full circle aha.

 

[Shaz]

What commercial games have you made? What engines or languages? What platforms? There are certainly MANY other options that would be much more profitable than RPG Maker, if for no other reason than RPG Maker is PC only and as yet there is no way to (legally) port a game onto any other platform. So you're not JUST after 2D old school RPG fans, but ONLY those who have PCs.

I haven't really followed Amaranth's success since.

Amaranth's success since then: look at my signature below


Aldorlea's success with RPG Maker games: look at Indinera's signature above

 

[negative_headed]

I hope I'm not doing something bad by posting this here as these tend to be the kind of bombshells with bad results...

But someone who was marked a developer on the steam discussions for RMVXA mentioned a possibility of exporting to the android market... if this is true then theoretically your potential market is expanded a bit more then we may now be aware of. Though someone with more community connections might want to cross check the post:

http://steamcommunity.com/app/220700/discussions/0/864961629610046751/

Though with the mobile markets being the bloated beasts that they already are, considering the increased potential market as well as also factoring in the massive influx of potential competition your actually going to only gain a smaller increase in size unless you do indeed have talent of any kind and then from that you have to rely on a certain level of reputation to spread the effect of your talent. I'm sure someone has actually made a formula for this effect... science has after all determined the perfect dance style so maybe someone has checked this out.

EDIT: to make a statement based entirely made without the above detail the end result is always that your maximum market potential is always determined by Exposure, Reputation, and Talent. Exposure is A nice thing, the number of people who "could" see your game is neat, but in the end it doesn't mean anything once you consider other factors like demographics. And that is only a number that from there can really only be subtracted from by your talent and then multiplied by your reputation... I'm fairly certain that's the math at least.

 

[Shaz]

Mitchell works for Degica (the distributors of the English RPG Maker suite and owners of this forum) and is a part of this community, and yes, what he says is true. But "being worked on" and "being available" are two different things.

 

[Engr. Adiktuzmiko]

though commercializing in the mobile market might be hard too, as there are lots of really good games out there for mobile that are free... and this is just an opinion based from what I see, but action style games and casual games are more popular in mobile players  than the traditional 2D rpgs...

but yeah, once that becomes available, it can be a really good potential market for both free and commercial RM games... it might even make it easier for you to market your games and build up your name...

 

[negative_headed]

Mitchell works for Degica (the distributors of the English RPG Maker suite and owners of this forum) and is a part of this community, and yes, what he says is true. But "being worked on" and "being available" are two different things.

Yes, this is why I said I was approaching the statement cautiously, more as a back process of sorts. A consideration... I actually don't want anyone to take from bringing that up but I still felt on some level it was at least in a small part pertinent information. Forgive me if I seem to deliberately convolute my own points.

 

[Shaz]

It is good to keep in mind as a potential future market, but it shouldn't be relied upon, as there's no indication of when it will be available. There's another thread around here somewhere devoted to that post and all the discussion it generated when it was first made.

 

[negative_headed]

It is good to keep in mind as a potential future market, but it shouldn't be relied upon, as there's no indication of when it will be available. There's another thread around here somewhere devoted to that post and all the discussion it generated when it was first made.

Yeah it figures... I about dropped a brick when I read it today... >.>

Honestly with larger markets like that as opposed to smaller markets your average person is more likely to lose audience then gain from what I can tell any way.

 

[Zozo]

Follow my advice, take 6 months to make a solid 20-hour game, and see where you go from that.

 

I may do that. I'm noticing that no one is adamant that there *aren't* 5,000 fans in this niche.

 

it's much easier to sell 5,000 copies at $1 than $10

 

True. I've sold games ranging from $1 to $27. I'd love to get back to making games that support $10-$25 price points.

 

[Zozo]

What commercial games have you made? What engines or languages? What platforms? There are certainly MANY other options that would be much more profitable than RPG Maker, if for no other reason than RPG Maker is PC only and as yet there is no way to (legally) port a game onto any other platform. So you're not JUST after 2D old school RPG fans, but ONLY those who have PCs.

 

This is a good point. There is much buzz about cross-platform among devs now. Maybe I'm just a contrarian, but I'm hoping to work on just one platform for a while. All of my games have been card and puzzle games, usually niched for an audience that wants them more difficult than expected and using standard platform UI. I've sold games on Palm Pilot, Mac, Windows, iPhone and iPad, and for each game I've had to create a custom engine in C/Assembly, Objective-C, or even a RealBasic-GUI wrapping a custom OpenGL sprite canvas.

 

Here are my #1 and #3 best-performing games. (I use different sites for each game, so I have several sites.)

 

http://www.solebon.com/

http://www.solavant.com/

 

You probably haven't heard of the second one - it's older, Mac-only, and highly niched. You might have heard of the first one if you had an iPhone before the App Store got saturated. The free version has a lot of players, and it's won a few awards over the years.

 

Now that I've written it out in this post, I'm pretty sure it's the time spent on engines/platforms/languages that I'm burning out on. I like the games I've made and the players I've met. I've had some success by any indie measure. But for a while I think I would enjoy using a completed, stable, genre-specific engine and spend more time trying to make interesting content. I don't know yet if RPG Maker is that engine, but it certainly looks like it could be.

Amaranth's success since then: look at my signature below

Aldorlea's success with RPG Maker games: look at Indinera's signature above

 

Yes, those impressive signatures were what first caught my eye when I came here a-lurking.

 

[Indinera]

I may do that. I'm noticing that no one is adamant that there *aren't* 5,000 fans in this niche.

 

I am lol I honestly wouldn't be able to answer that unless you tell me how you define a "fan", ie if someone purchasing a game at $1 is just as much of a fan as someone doing the same thing at $20. It's a business, so income is more relevant than sales. I find it much much easier to sell massively at a low price point but at the end of the day, what makes a successful game (at least in my views) is how much money it made.

 

True. I've sold games ranging from $1 to $27. I'd love to get back to making games that support $10-$25 price points.

Excellent. I kinda did that too.

Yes, those impressive signatures were what first caught my eye when I came here a-lurking.

Thank you very much. Congrats on your success and longevity too.

 

[byrdbones]

As regards the possible exporting ability to Android it is being worked on, and could be out in a few months or a year, or never. However my big worry is will all of the added 3rd party scripts etc. work just as well with it. But yeah opening up to that market as well would be awesome.