What are the odds?

[Neo_Kum0rius_6000]

I know this isn't the place to post this question..
But what are the odds in Pokemon Sun and Moon
of getting a shiny via Masuda method
and with the shiny charm?

I've been trying to get a shiny Kricketot for
about a day now and I still can't get after
about 212 eggs.

 

[Jules98]

Not very high.

Base odds: 1/4096 (~0,02%)
Masuda Method: 6/4096
Shiny Charm: 3/4096

1 x 6 x 3 =18
18/4096 = ~0,44%

Good luck!

 

[JtheDuelist]

@Jules98 That is XY and prior statistics. They wanted SM/USUM statistics.
@KumoriCloud Don't worry- this is the right place, being the "Off-Topic" board for a reason (this is in a way RMW's equivalent of Miiverse's NSLU community back in the days of when it was still alive, albeit with much MUCH less salt, hackers, and trolls). But for your question, in SM/USUM, the odds of a shiny from Masuda Method with charm is 1/252, much better than the 1/1000-something from previous generations- albeit, I have gotten more shinies charmless in XY due to hordes than Masuda with charm in SM/USUM (5 from XY hordes, 1 from Masuda with charm in SM/USUM)- and the one shiny I did get from Masuda+Charm was a MALE shiny Combee- MALE! Because ya know: regardless of what game I play, RNG hates me to Hell and back.

Male shiny Combee and male shiny Salandit- GameFreak's biggest middle fingers to players ever- who thought making those two's evolutions gender-specific only was a good idea?

 

[Jules98]

@JtheDuelist The shiny odds didn't change between XY and SM (they did between BW and XY), so my numbers are correct.

Not that it matters terribly much. 1/252 = ~0,40%

For the record, odds pre-XY are twice as low.